Let’s see how it plays out

On last Friday, the latest job loss data released was worse than predicted, however, the market reacted by going straight up. The reasons, some say, are that people ( or the market) have already factored in the bad news and any less-bad news can be good news, and that the bad news would push the congress the pass the 800 billion bailout plan. And the market is also waiting for new Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s announcement.

It’s highly possible that the congress would pass the bill on Monday, which is something market has high expectation of.

Normally, when the market strongly expect something to happen, it has been factored in current price. So when the news actually come, movement in market is therefore not strong. Let’s see if this is true this time.

From My All Time Idols

You don’t have to do eveything well, as long as you do something BETTER than others, you can be very successful.  — Geroge Soros

Most people lose money because they feel have to trade. You don’t have to trade, you simply wait for the opportunity manifest itself. — Jim Rogers

When fundamental changes, all it needs is a catalyst for new trend to happeen. — Jim Rogers

Principle of thinking.

A passion for general knowledge. A passion for life.

 

Any talent takes 10,000 hours to manifest.

Any great achievement takes years to accomplish. 

So be Focused and Patient, nothing can be done overnight.

 

A good management of time is essential to have a clear mind and consistent interest and focus.

My goals of studying and thinking.

A deep understanding of basic economic concepts, important theory and different models.

A thorough study of the sophisticated financial products, like options, futures and swap.

Sufficient knowledge of history, human psychology, politics and common sense.

Know how to conduct research and analyze sectors of economy and financial products. 
Know how to find the data.

Be able to make sound, if not insightful, financial investment decisions.

Where to invest and trade

What to trade:

- ETFs: volatility (daily gain/loss can surpass 30%), diversification(capture broad industries, like commodities, currencies and financials), and easy to short.

- Currency: American Dollar is doomed for sure,  debasing the currency is Fed’s means to solve the problem. But the timing is crucial, currently there is no strong sign of inflation taking off.

- Futures of Commodities: How much lower can crude oil go? Agriculture, oil and gold are bounded to rise once the temporary rebound of the stock market is over. But it requires trading skills, tech analysis and lots of time.

 

What to invest

- Gold and Silver: THE real money, when US dollar can not be held by the Fed anymore, they are going banana. But whether the Fed’s manipulation of gold can be out-taken by investors within this year remains uncertain.